Europe’s first step is to become stronger than Russia | Carlo Masala
- Суспільство
- 61 хвилина
- 11 березня 2026
The book by Carlo Masala, Professor of International Politics at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich, If Russia Wins: A Scenario, has become a bestseller. In it, the German military analyst outlines a hypothetical development of events in Europe in the event of a war between Russia and NATOcountries. He analyzed the Alliance’s vulnerabilities on the map and identified several of them. As the starting point of the conflict, he chose Narva, Estonia’s third-largest city onthe border with Russia, which has a significant Russian-speaking population. In the book’s scenario, several brigades of the Russian army seize the Estonian city.
Masala says the idea for the book came to him in 2024, when intelligence services from several European countriespublicly warned that Russia could be ready to attack a NATO member state by 2029. The author believes the current debate about whether the Kremlin is capable of attacking the Alliance is misguided. Instead, he argues, the keyquestion should be Russia’s broader political objective. In his view, the destruction of NATO is precisely that objective. A limited attack on a border city with a Russian minority could serve that goal. In Masala’s book, NATO members face a stark choice: enter a major war with a nuclear power or sacrifice a small city in the east. Ultimately, the Alliance fails to reachconsensus on the issue. Masala says he still does not see unity within NATO when it comes to a possible confrontation with Russia — and Moscow is well aware of that. This is why the hypothetical scenario could become a real one.
Journalist Nataliya Gumenyuk speaks with Carlo Masala about his book, the U.S.–Israeli operation against Iran and why Europe was sidelined, what Europe lacks most in military terms and how Ukraine could help, Russia’s psychologicalwarfare, and the wrong signals NATO may be sending to the Kremlin.
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